DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 11/28 06:28
Heavy Selling Should Subside
It was another day of washout in the cattle complex with feeder cattle
completely falling apart for a second consecutive day. The drop on Friday was
thought to be overdone, but that was not the case as the pressure continued.
Hogs continued to decline with traders not optimistic over prices.
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Lower Futures: Lower Live Equiv: $215.94 -$0.58*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $96.24 +$4.58**
*Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live
cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
Cattle futures made a valiant effort to regain some of the losses of Friday.
Some believed the market was overdone and impacted by lighter holiday trade.
That certainly was not the case as selling increased and the market plummeted.
Fund liquidation ran rampant for another day but may temper today as this type
of selling generally runs for two to three days. Live cattle futures had about
a $4.00 price swing on Monday while feeder cattle futures had an $8.00 to $9.00
price swing. The market is oversold, but that does not mean a huge retracement
will take place. Packers will use this to their advantage and bid lower this
week. Boxed beef showed weakness with choice down $0.78 and select down $0.96.
The Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 2,721 live cattle futures
contracts as of November 21st bringing their net long positions to 35,170
contracts. They sold 1,777 feeder cattle futures moving them to a net short of
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